Solar energy has become one of Pakistan’s most popular alternatives to expensive grid electricity. However, a major international development is now raising concerns that solar panel prices may increase in the coming months — and the impact could be significant for local consumers.
The reason lies in a major policy change announced by China, the world’s largest producer of solar photovoltaic (PV) equipment.
🇨🇳 China’s New Policy Is Reshaping the Global Solar Industry
In January 2026, China’s Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the complete withdrawal of export VAT rebates on photovoltaic products, effective April 1, 2026.
Under this decision:
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Export tax rebates on PV modules will be fully eliminated
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Tax rebates on battery-related products will be gradually phased out by 2027
Since China dominates the global solar supply chain, this move is already sending ripples across international markets.
📈 Why This Policy Could Increase Solar Panel Prices
Industry analysts warn that removing export rebates — previously around 9% — directly increases production and export costs.
According to Shanghai Metals Market:
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A standard 210R PV module could lose up to 51 yuan per unit in export margins
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Exporters are likely to pass this additional cost to international buyers
As one senior solar analyst noted,
“This isn’t a minor adjustment — it’s a structural cost shift.”
🇵🇰 Why Pakistan Is Especially Vulnerable
Pakistan relies heavily on imported solar panels, with most supplies coming from China. As a result:
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Any global price increase directly affects local installation costs
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Residential and commercial solar projects become more expensive
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Price-sensitive consumers may delay switching to solar
With electricity tariffs already at historic highs, even a modest rise in solar prices could impact adoption rates.
🧱 Raw Material Costs Are Adding More Pressure
China’s tax decision is not the only factor pushing prices upward.
Recent market data shows:
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Polysilicon prices up nearly 10% month-on-month
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Silver prices at record highs
Both materials are essential for solar module manufacturing, further increasing production costs worldwide.
⏳ A Short-Term Buying Rush, Then Higher Prices?
Global buyers are now rushing to place orders before April 1, 2026, to benefit from the current rebate structure.
Experts expect:
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A short-term spike in exports
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Followed by higher prices and softer demand after the deadline
Several manufacturers have already indicated that solar module prices could rise by up to 9% after April.
🔮 What This Means for Solar Buyers in Pakistan
Solar power remains cheaper than conventional electricity in the long run. However:
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Continuous price increases could slow adoption
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Middle-income and small-scale users may reconsider timelines
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Early buyers may benefit before global prices reset
The next few months will be critical for Pakistan’s solar sector.
